Seattle Housing Market Update: October 2026

October was the month the medians stopped agreeing with each other. Southeast Seattle came in at $929,000, up 21% from last October. The Eastside came in at $1,350,000, down 13% and falling for the fourth month running. Seattle sat between them at $982,500, down 6% on the year but up from September. Those three numbers describe one market, and at least two of them are mostly arithmetic.

What is not arithmetic is the rate. Mortgage rates averaged 7.33% in October against 6.25% a year ago, the highest monthly average since late 2023. Seattle is now the most balanced it has been in any October in at least a decade, at 3.3 months of supply, and buyers have 22% more houses to choose from. They are also paying $287 more a month than they would have for the same median house last year.

Southeast Seattle: A 21% Jump That Is Not a 21% Gain

Southeast Seattle (Mt. Baker, Columbia City, Beacon Hill, Seward Park, Hillman City and Rainier Beach) posted a median of $929,000 for houses in October, up 21% from $766,000 last October.

I have spent most of this year writing the warning that applies here, usually about a decline. Forty-three houses closed. At that volume the median reports whichever handful happened to sell, and in September I was explaining an 8% drop the same way. This is that same thinness pointing the other direction, and it deserves exactly as much skepticism.

Two specifics make the case. Last October's $766,000 was the lowest month of 2025, so the comparison is against the softest base the year offered. And this October's $929,000 is not even the high for 2026: June closed at $990,000. The monthly run for this year reads $683,000, $737,000, $776,000, $880,000, $900,000, $990,000, $818,000, $792,000, $780,000 and $929,000. That is not a trend with a 21% gain in it. It is a small market bouncing.

The steadier read is the year. Across January through October the monthly medians here averaged $828,000, down 2% from $849,000 over the same stretch of 2025, on 402 closed sales against 404. Down slightly on flat volume is what actually happened to Southeast Seattle this year. My Q3 report goes further into why a single month here is too thin to read and what the neighborhood-level numbers do and do not tell you.

Supply says the same thing more calmly. There were 138 houses on the market at the end of October against 118 a year ago, with 48 going pending, which puts supply at 2.9 months against 2.6. That is still the tightest of the four areas in this report, and Southeast Seattle has not left the balanced band all year.

The pace data is where the 21% gets complicated. Of 43 sales, 11 sold above asking in an average of 5 days at a median 3% over, 7 sold at asking, and 12 sold below at a median 4% under. The remaining 13, or 30%, changed price or relisted first and took an average of 103 days, the longest of any group in this report. So the same month that produced a 21% headline also produced the slowest price-cut cohort in the region.

Two cautions carry over. The payment on a median Southeast Seattle house is now $6,387 against $4,718 last October, up $1,668 a month, but that figure inherits the same mix problem as the median that drives it, so I would not read it as what local payments actually did. And 20% of local sales that reached contract over the past year failed to close, still the highest of the four areas.

Seattle Citywide: The Most Balanced October in a Decade

The median house in Seattle closed at $982,500, down 6% from $1,049,999 last October but up from $960,000 in September. Both halves of that matter: the year-over-year decline widened from September's 2%, while the month-over-month number rose.

Supply is the clearer story. There were 1,587 houses on the market at the end of October, up 22% year over year, against 479 going pending, down 16%, for 3.3 months of supply against 2.3 a year ago. That is the highest October reading in at least ten years and the top of the balanced band, which Windermere's scale puts at two to four months. For scale in the other direction, inventory in 2008 reached about 6.5 months, roughly double where we are now.

Set those two counts against a normal October and the shape is obvious. The 2016 to 2025 average for October active listings is 965, so this year's 1,587 is about 64% above typical. A typical October sees 712 homes go pending; this one saw 479. Supply is well above normal and demand is well below it, which is the whole explanation for the inventory number.

Of 479 sales in the preliminary pace count, 114 (24%) sold above list in an average of 5 days at a median 4% over, 102 (21%) sold at list, 110 (23%) sold below at a median 3% under, and 153 (32%) changed price or relisted first and averaged 82 days. Those four groups do not overlap. Read the last two together and 55% of October sellers in Seattle either took less than they asked or cut the price before they found a buyer. NWMLS closed 484 sales for the month; the pace splits above rest on a preliminary count of 479, which is why the two numbers differ slightly.

Measured from the first price asked, 269 of those sales, 56.2%, closed inside 15 days at 100% of the original number. The 58 that ran past 91 days closed at 86.7%. On a median house that gap is about $130,000, and it is the single most useful number in this report for anyone about to set an asking price.

Two slower-moving numbers are worth watching. The share of new listings that eventually close has fallen to 54% from 61% a year ago, meaning more sellers are listing and not selling. And roughly 15% of accepted offers failed to close over the past year, unchanged.

Where the Leverage Actually Is

This is new to the report this month, and it upends the assumption I hear most often from buyers. Supply by price band, averaged across the six weeks ending 28 October, does not run in the direction people expect.

The loosest part of the Seattle house market is not the top. It is the $700,000 to $799,999 band, the only tier in genuine buyer's-market territory at 4.3 months, with $600,000 to $699,999 just behind at 3.9. Meanwhile $1,000,000 to $1,749,999 runs 2.2 to 2.7 months, which is a seller's market by any reading.

That has a practical consequence in both directions. A buyer shopping at $750,000 has more choice and more room to negotiate than a buyer at $1.4 million, which is the opposite of how most people assume this works. And a move-up buyer selling in the $700,000s to buy at $1.2 million is trading from the weakest position in the market into the strongest, which is a harder trade than it was a year ago and worth planning around rather than discovering.

The Eastside: Four Straight Months Down

The Eastside crossed into buyer's-market supply in September. In October it went further in every direction.

The median house sold for $1,350,000, down 13% from $1,550,000. That is the fourth consecutive monthly decline: $1,575,000 in July, $1,446,000 in August, $1,425,000 in September, $1,350,000 now. Inventory rose 48% year over year to 1,764 houses, pendings fell 15% to 396, and supply reached 4.5 months against 2.6 a year ago, the highest October in at least a decade. By the last week of October the weekly measure had reached 5.7 months.

The selling data is the most lopsided in this report. Of 407 sales, just 38, or 9%, sold above list. More than half, 211 or 52%, changed price or relisted before selling, and those averaged 96 days. Measured from first asking price, only 35.4% closed inside 15 days at the full number, and the 25.6% that ran past 91 days finished at 84.0%.

Two things keep this from reading as a crisis. Only 12% of Eastside pendings failed to close over the past year, the best of the four areas, so signed deals are holding together. And the payment on a median Eastside house actually fell, to $9,281 from $9,548, the only area in this report where that happened, because the price decline outran the rate increase.

For buyers who work in Bellevue or Redmond, this is the most negotiating room the Eastside has offered in this cycle. My Rose Hill guide covers one slice of it, including why the Kirkland and Redmond city line matters more than buyers expect.

Condos: Still the Softest Market Everywhere

Condos remain the loosest segment in every area here, and October gave back price as well as time.

Seattle condos sit at 7.2 months of supply, up from 4.5 a year ago, with a median of $515,825, down 11%. Closings fell 28% to 138. Eastside condos are at 5.6 months against 3.7, median $572,472, down 23%. Countywide it is 6.2 months against 3.8, median $465,000, down 15%, on closings down 30%.

That is the pattern worth noticing: condo sales volume is down by a quarter to a third everywhere while house volume is down 14% to 18%. Buyers are not simply paying less for condos, they are buying far fewer of them, which is what 5 to 7 months of supply looks like from the inside. If you are weighing formats, my condo, townhouse and house comparison covers what each actually costs to own.

Southeast Seattle condos should not be read this month, or really any month. Two units closed. The $620,500 median and the 70% increase attached to it are not a measurement of anything.

King County: Supply Up 38%

The countywide median house came in at $925,000, down 7% from $997,000. Behind it, 5,269 houses were on the market at the end of October, up 38%, against 1,459 pendings, down 16%, for 3.6 months of supply against 2.2 last year.

Of 1,416 sales in the preliminary count, 217 (15%) sold above list in 6 days at a median 3% over, 232 (16%) sold at list, 323 (23%) sold below, and 644 (46%) changed price or relisted first and averaged 88 days. Measured from first price, 42.2% closed inside 15 days at the full number and the 18.6% past 91 days closed at 86.3%.

The payment on a median county house is $6,359 against $6,141 last October, up $218 a month or $2,614 a year. Countywide, 55% of new listings now go on to close, down from 65%.

Put the four areas side by side and the ladder is clear: Southeast Seattle at 2.9 months, Seattle at 3.3, King County at 3.6, the Eastside at 4.5. Only one of those has crossed into buyer's-market territory, and it is the most expensive one.

Two Measurements Changed This Month

The reports behind this article changed how they count days on market and how they measure discounts, and both changes are improvements worth explaining, because they affect numbers I have quoted in previous months.

Days on market is now Total Market Time: every day a home spent in First Look, Active or Contingent status, resetting only after 60 consecutive days off market. Last month I noted that Windermere was adding First Look days back into a count NWMLS leaves them out of. It is now the stated basis rather than an adjustment, which closes exactly the gap my First Look article told buyers to ask about.

The more useful change is that sale price is now reported against two different asking prices: the first one ever asked, and the last one standing before the sale. The difference between those columns is the whole story of a long listing. Take Seattle's 91-plus-day sales. Against the first price asked they closed at 86.7%, which looks like buyers extracting 13 points. Against the last price asked they closed at 97.0%. Buyers negotiated about 3% off the current number; the other ten points were sellers cutting their way down to it over three months.

That distinction matters because the two have different lessons. Three percent off the standing ask is normal negotiation and roughly constant across every band and area in this report. The ten points is self-inflicted, and it is avoidable by pricing correctly on day one rather than in three installments.

October 2026 at a Glance

Southeast Seattle's figures rest on 43 house sales and 2 condo sales. Both percentages in that row are sample size rather than signal, and the condo one should be ignored entirely.

What This Means for You

• 01If you're selling a house in Southeast Seattle: ignore the 21%. Price to the comparable sales that actually closed on your block, because the area median moved on mix and your buyer's lender will not accept it as evidence. Supply here is still the tightest in the county at 2.9 months, but the 30% of sellers who cut price first waited 103 days.
• 02If you're selling on the Eastside: four straight months of declines and 4.5 months of supply mean the first asking price is the entire strategy. Starting high cost the 91-day group 16% off their original number, and more than half of October's sellers needed a price change to find a buyer.
• 03If you're buying a house: the arithmetic turned against waiting. Rates at 7.33% added $287 a month to the median Seattle payment even though the price fell $67,499. What you get in exchange is choice and time, and both are real. Negotiate on credits and rate buydowns as well as price.
• 04If you're shopping between $600,000 and $800,000: this is the loosest part of the Seattle house market right now, at 3.9 to 4.3 months of supply. You have more leverage here than buyers a half million dollars above you, which is not how anyone expects this to work.
• 05If you're condo shopping: 7.2 months of supply in Seattle, 6.2 countywide, and medians down 11% to 23% across the three areas. This is the most patient market in the region.
• 06If you're a first-time buyer: rates hurt, but the sub-$800,000 bands are where supply has grown most and where sellers are most willing to deal. My first-time buyer guide covers Washington's down payment programs and how to use a market like this one.

The Bottom Line

October's three medians pointed in three directions, and only one of them meant anything. Southeast Seattle's 21% rise and its 8% fall in September are the same 40-sales-a-month market producing noise. The Eastside's fourth consecutive decline, on 48% more inventory and 4.5 months of supply, is a real repricing. Seattle in the middle is the most balanced it has been in any October in at least a decade, with just 24% of homes selling above asking, down from 26% last October, and a $130,000 penalty for pricing wrong.

Rates are the thing that changed for everyone. At 7.33%, the highest monthly average in nearly three years, payments rose year over year in Seattle, Southeast Seattle and the county even where prices fell. That removes the argument for waiting that has held for most of this year, and it puts the weight back on negotiating the deal in front of you rather than the one you hope to find in spring. For last month's picture, see the September update.

Wondering what this market means for your home's value? I'll run a free, no-obligation valuation using live neighborhood data, not a Zestimate. Or, if you're buying, reach out and I'll set up alerts for the neighborhoods and price bands where the data favors you.